ALIENATION AND VIOLENCE: IMPACT OF THE SYRIA CRISIS IN 2014
"The armed-conflict continued to intensify and become even more corrosive during 2014 with the emergence of ISIS as significant terror force operating in both Iraq and Syria. Moreover, the expanding internationalisation of the conflict served to deepen the suffering of Syrians with scant hope of ending the crisis. As the institutions of violence have expanded and been reinforced they have spread hatred, extremism and polarization. These institutions primarily serve the objectives of the powers of subjugation through oppression, fanaticism and fundamentalism, regardless of the will of people. This created a fissure and great divide between Syrians and different dominating institutions that has significantly aggravated estrangement and alienation among the majority of people. As with the previous reports in this series, this report was prepared by the Syrian Centre for Policy Research (SCPR) with the support of UNDP and UNRWA. It aims to estimate, document and analyse the catastrophic socioeconomic impact of the ongoing armedconflict. The report highlights some of the pitfalls and gaps in applying mainstream analytical framework due to the complexity and specificity of Syrian crisis.
To attempt to close this gap, the report uses a comprehensive analytical frameworks that adopts the concept of inclusive human-centred development. This framework uses recent quantitative and qualitative methods to evaluate the impact of the crisis in its economic, social, and institutional aspects2. The report provides an evidence-based diagnosis of the Syrian situation that could be used as a tool to support and help build alternatives that break the cycle of violence and lessen the dominance of subjugating powers through a framework grounded in respect for human dignity and rights. The report applies a counterfactual methodology that compares the “crisis scenario”, or the actual indicators that emerged during the crisis, with the “continuing scenario”, or the indicators that would have been achieved had the crisis not arisen. It includes multiple macroeconomic and social performance indicators that were compiled and estimated based on available sources and in consultation with a number of experts."